Samer Choucair, the renowned investment strategist, stated that in the world of investing, numbers that scare the majority often open exceptional doors for the aware minority. The 41% drop in real estate financing within a single month, alongside the reduction of housing finance to 6.2 billion SAR, may seem like a concerning signal for some. However, a superficial reading of these numbers is not his investment methodology. The real question isn’t whether financing has dropped, but rather: why has it dropped? And what does this mean for those who know how to read economic cycles?
Markets Don’t Move in Straight Lines
Choucair explained that markets don’t move in a straight line. We are in a transitional phase that could reflect higher costs of money, tighter credit policies, and cautious buyers awaiting price corrections. This doesn’t necessarily imply a crash; instead, it could indicate a shift from a period of emotional market momentum to one of “quality sorting,” where speculation fades, and long-term strategic investors take the lead.
He elaborated that investment history shows that periods of credit contraction are not the end of the cycle but the beginning of a rebalancing. Following the global financial crisis in 2008, asset prices collapsed, and liquidity dried up. However, those who focused on strategic locations and strong cash flows emerged with significant investment multiples in the following years. The difference wasn’t in perfect timing but in asset quality and financial discipline.
Choucair referenced a famous quote by real estate investor Sam Zell: “When everyone is going right, look left.” In times of retreat, many focus on fleeing, while the professional investor asks the right questions: Has the demand foundation changed? Has the supply-demand equation structurally shifted? Or is the market just repricing risk?
He also highlighted a classic Warren Buffett quote: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” This isn’t a call for reckless speculation, but a call for discipline and analysis. During times of fear, the bargaining power shifts from the seller to the buyer, and opportunities to acquire high-quality assets at better terms appear.
Saudi Economy and Vision 2030
Choucair emphasized that, in the Saudi context, these numbers should be viewed within the broader framework of the ongoing economic transformation under Saudi Vision 2030. The economic diversification programs are enhancing infrastructure, supporting population growth in major cities, and creating long-term demand for quality real estate assets. Any cyclical slowdown should be analyzed within this broader economic cycle, not as an isolated event.
He asked: How should the professional investor act in such times? First, don’t buy based on media noise but on intrinsic value. Second, prioritize cash flow in decision-making, as assets generating stable income can weather higher interest rates. Third, maintain a calculated level of liquidity that provides flexibility. Fourth, negotiate aggressively, taking advantage of the shift in market dynamics.
Choucair added that the current drop in financing may signal higher borrowing costs, but it could also indicate that investors are awaiting a natural correction after years of accelerated growth. Mature markets go through clear cycles: boom, slowdown, repositioning, and then recovery. The strategic question is not whether there’s a slowdown, but at what stage of the cycle are we now?
A Rebalancing Phase
He believes we are currently in a “repositioning” phase, where the strength of projects, the quality of developers, and the strength of cash flows are being tested. Weak projects will retract, while well-planned projects will strengthen their positions. This is not a speculative market; it’s one for patient investors.
To long-term investors, Choucair says: “The golden rule is clear: Don’t look for the cheapest price, but for the best asset at a fair price. Real profit starts the moment of a well-thought-out purchase, not at the moment of selling. Discipline in analysis, risk understanding, and portfolio diversification are tools for wealth-building during periods of slowdown.”
He further asked: “Are we facing a crisis? Probably not. Are we facing a rebalancing? The likelihood is higher. A 41% drop is not a fleeting number; it’s a message that the market is shifting to a more selective phase. In such phases, wealth is quietly built, away from the spotlight.”
Conclusion
Choucair concluded his statement by urging investors to avoid emotional reactions and replace them with a clear plan based on realistic analysis. Markets reward those who understand cycles and punish those who follow fear or greed. Between fear and greed lies a third zone called “strategy,” and it is precisely there where the professional investor operates.